India has announced its decision to immediately suspend the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan after gunmen killed 26 tourists in Kashmir, part of a move to downgrade diplomatic ties with the neighboring country.
The agreement had survived three wars and various ups and downs in diplomatic relations between the two arch-rivals until New Delhi made its decision last Wednesday.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The two nuclear-powered neighbors have a long-standing dispute over the use of water from rivers flowing from upstream India into the Indus Basin in Pakistan.
The water of these rivers is used in accordance with the Indus Waters Treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank in September 1960 and signed by India and Pakistan.
The treaty divided the waters of the Indus and its tributaries between the two countries and set the rules for water sharing. India was allowed to use the waters of the three eastern rivers of the Indus basin, the Irrawaddy, the Bipasha, and the Sutlej. Pakistan was allowed to use most of the waters of the three western rivers, the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab.
The agreement does not provide for any country to unilaterally suspend or terminate it. Rather, it has clear dispute settlement mechanisms.
The concern about water is working
The two nuclear-powered neighbors have been embroiled in disputes and disputes over various projects on the Indus and its tributaries in Indian territory for many years.
Pakistan relies heavily on the water of the river system for hydroelectric power generation and irrigation. The country says India is illegally diverting water by building dams upstream. India denies the allegations.
Pakistan, concerned that Indian dams will reduce the flow of water in the rivers that supply 80 percent of the country’s irrigated agriculture, has sought the intervention of neutral experts and later an arbitration court over two recent hydroelectric projects.
India has accused Pakistan of prolonging the process of resolving the grievances. The country has said that the construction of the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects is legal under the Indus Treaty. India has also demanded that the treaty be amended to avoid such delays in resolving the grievances.
A view of the Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project, a hydroelectric project built by India on the Chenab River. India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan following the gunmen’s attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on Tuesday.Photo: ANI
What changes could come from the decision to suspend the contract?
Even if the agreement is suspended, it is not expected to have any immediate impact on water flow to Pakistan, as India does not have sufficient water storage capacity.
However, India’s move could push Pakistan’s agricultural system into uncertainty.
Indian officials said the suspension of the agreement could mean India deciding not to share information on water releases from barrages or dams or important flood data. They added that India would also no longer be required to release a minimum amount of water during the dry season.
Pakistan relies heavily on the water of this river system for hydroelectric power generation and irrigation. The country says India is illegally diverting water by building dams and barrages upstream. India denies the allegations.
Can India stop the flow of water to Pakistan?
What is Pakistan’s reaction to India’s decision?
A statement issued by the office of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on Thursday said that the agreement is a binding international agreement, brokered by the World Bank. There is no provision for its unilateral suspension.
The statement further said, “Any attempt to block or divert the water due to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty and to usurp the rights of the downstream region will be considered a declaration of war and will be responded to with full force.”
The rivers of India are located upstream and the rivers of Pakistan are located downstream.Read more
What is the Simla Agreement, what will be the impact on India if this agreement is suspended?
Even if the agreement is suspended, it is not expected to have any immediate impact on water flow to Pakistan, as India does not have sufficient water storage capacity.
Ghasharib Shawkat, head of product at Pakistan Agricultural Research, called the Indus Treaty the backbone of the country’s agricultural sector. “This (India’s decision to suspend the treaty) will shake the future of our agriculture. If the flow of water becomes irregular, the entire system will suffer – especially crops that depend on irrigation such as wheat, rice and sugarcane,” he said.
Sharif Shawkat also said, “Crop yields may decrease. Costs may increase. There is a risk of food prices increasing. And small farmers, who work for low profits, will suffer the most.”
Khalid Hussain Butt, chairman of the National Farmers Union of Pakistan, called India’s move an “aggressive move.” Speaking from Lahore, he said, “This is really a war. We are already facing a water crisis due to climate change. This year there has been less rain. There has also been less snow melt. As a result, the water level is 20-25 percent lower than last year.”
Source: Prothom Alo
